What an amazing night. I had the opportunity to speak on behalf of Governor Huckabee at my precinct in a true display of grassroots democracy. Mike ended up winning my precinct in a college town at the student union: a feat I never though possible. Iowans sent a clear signal tonight. The NY and DC establishment can't create a candidate for us. The pundits and talking heads on tv can't make our choice. Honesty and authenticity still matter in the heartland. Perhaps the most important messages of all is that Iowans can't be bought. This is a whole new race now.

It's that time. My very first caucus. I'm very excited to be able to participate in one of the most unique and important political events in the world. The results decided tonight by my fellow Iowans could set the precedent for the rest of the race for the nomination. Although the wind chills are single digits, the weather is supposed to be clear and there should be a large turnout tonight. Although there were a lot of uncertainties over the weekend about the lead in Iowa, it appears the current edge has stayed with Governor Huckabee. He appears to have gotten a small boost this week just in time for the caucus tonight. Although polls are poor predictors of the caucus, the Des Moines Register poll is the most historically accurate and it shows the same trend as the poll averages. The most positive trend for Governor Huckabee is that his support appears to be the most solid, which will help him compete with other campaigns that have larger organizations. Regardless, it is sure to be a close race and may also knock a couple candidates from the race. I will be watching the returns closely and will attempt to write a short post when I get home this evening after a winner is announced.

Most of the pundits continue to harp on how Huckabee cannot do well in NH, b/c the state is secular and not particularly warm to evangelicals.

I think a lot of folks are over-looking some key facts. Here is how Huckabee can do better than anticipated in NH. (I used to live in Mass & Boston, worked in NH ocassionally, so I have a little bit of flavor of the area).

1. Guns. NH is "Live Free or Die" country. Huck is huge on guns.
2. Unions - Huck has been endorsed by IAM & NEA.
3. Protectionist Perspective - NH, save for the ex-urbs of boston, is largely composed of cow-towns, blue collar workers, and folks who don't exactly love wall st. (think buchanan's wins)
4. Immigration - Huck may well parade Gilchrist around in NH (which may come back to haunt him, b/c Gilchrist carries a lot of personal baggage).

Continue reading "How Huck Can Do Well in NH" »

I've been waiting with (as Rush Limbaugh would say) "baited breath" until the day that Mike Huckabee would be on the four candidates on the RCP national average poll found on most articles pages within FOXNews.com. Today was the day. Huckabee has nudged Romney off the top four holding at 12.8% nationally. He trails Thompson (13.6%) by less than one percent. Rasmussen have Giuliani and Huckabee in a national statistical tie. Interesting site if you have never gotten to it Real Clear Politics Poll. Go Huck!

I know I am couple days behind, but I wanted to take a second and comment on how well I felt Huckabee did during the CNN Debate. He continues to get good press even now internationally, which is a bit alarming, but Wednesday night he came across to me as connecting with the viewer and being very human. A highlight of the debate for me was the question of whether he would accept financial support from the Log Cabin Republicans. Of course, he would take anyone's money, but quickly followed that statement up with stating that they could not expect him to change his stance on gay/lesbian issues even with their support. I'm glad to see someone who will lay his position out there and stand behind it whether or not he receives support (financial, etc.).

That's all for now... Hope everyone enjoyed Thanksgiving and hope your December goes well.

There should be quite a bit of talk regarding Mike Huckabee's new ad which is going to start airing in Iowa today. It is simply called "Believe" and can be viewed here. The ad appears to be designed at energizing the Christian base with two excerpts from the Family Research Council's Values Voters Summit (held in DC during October) contained within it. I hope the individuals who are still on the "fringe" will start to close ranks with Huckabee and give him the necessary support he needs to be successful. The critics are beginning to surface as we knew were coming; however, I am surprised it has taken them this long to get active. Some mainstream media outlets (i.e. New York Times) still have not called out a full frontal attack on Huckabee, either. That is somewhat surprising to me. I guess we will see what transpires over the next weeks and months.

FOXNews.com has a front page spread article on the "dark horse" candidate, Mike Huckabee as he surges in Iowa polls and exceeded his fundraising goal of $1 million as of midnight last night.

I am pleasantly surprised that Huckabee raised over a million dollars. He raised almost $200,000 within twenty-four hours. I know I am not in the political loop, but that seems phenomenal to me for a candidate raising support. As of his email blast out to supporters yesterday (1am on 20 November), Huckabee had a November collection balance right at $800,000 and finished up at $1,043,000 which exceeded the email stated goal of $1,034,000.

I am anxious to see how the rest of 2007 plays out for Huckabee. Should be an interesting few months for those who enjoy watching the candidates.

I hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving!

Well, I made my first contribution to the Huckabee Campaign today at the behest of a good friend of mine (who will remain anonymous). I also got an email blast from the Huck camp saying they wanted to raise a little over a million dollars by midnight tonight. They are into the $800,000s right now. Probably have a pretty good chance. Getting his first ad out was a big move, and I look forward to the additional ads that will be forthcoming. It is still amazing to me to see the impact Huckabee has in the IA polls without any major media ads running in that state (until here recently). I would encourage you all to contribute to the campaign no matter how small or great the contribution, it all makes a difference.

It looks like Phil beat me to the news on the new tv ad. I've been watching Tancredo and others joining Romney on the airwaves and was waiting for Huckabee to join them. It's very lighthearted and does a decent job showing the Governor's personality in a 30 second video. My only concern is that some voters may find it too lighthearted. Only time will tell.

In other news, there have been several interesting polls published lately:
American Research Group Iowa Poll - Huckabee 24%, Romney 26%
CBS/New York Times Poll Iowa Poll - Huckabee 21%, Romney 27%
Rasmussen Daily National Tracking Poll - Huckabee tied for 2nd

It is pretty astonishing how much momentum Governor Huckabee has in Iowa without spending a single penny on airtime. It will be interesting to see the effects of actually putting some money into ads in Iowa. Huckabee has done very well so far with a purely grassroots campaign, so even is a more modern mass-media campaign gives a modest boost, that could be enough in Iowa. Also, much of the Huckabee organization has moved to Des Moines, so this appears to be where Huckabee is going to make his stand. The only question would be if a victory here would give enough momentum to sail to victory nationwide with limited time and resources. With Huckabee polling in to the top tier nationwide, it does appear more possible now. Only time will tell.

Are most voters passionate about the size of government?
Do most voters want to eliminate government programs?

Obviously the answer is no. Many Republicans are passionate about these things but no one else cares. However that doesn't mean most voters want a large powerful government.

It does mean that most voters don't care about ideology. Mike Huckabee gets this. Voters don't care whether an idea is conservative or liberal.

They care about results. Is this policy going to improve my life or make it worse?

Until recently I'd ignored Huckabee's message on this issue. It's something Republicans need to wake up to.

We'll lose if we don't offer policies to improve people's lives on the issues they care about.

Huckabee says it like this:

"Let me submit to you that we are too concerned with horizontal politics in America today. Perhaps the people out there eating dinner tonight aren't as concerned about the horizontal politics of left and right, but with the vertical politics: are we lifting them up or tearing them down."

I know it's just the primary season but voters are already paying attention. Do we want to offer up candidates who are selling ideology and partisan politics or do we want to deal with the problems voters actually care about?

If we don't offer bold solutions to voter's real concerns we will lose in November 2008 and Hillary, Obama, or Edwards will be elected President.